Monday, November 27, 2006

END OF THE REAL ESTATE SLOW DOWN?

The worst of the housing bust is over, economists said by nearly 2-to-1 in the latest WSJ.com economic forecasting survey. But they still predict that the average selling price of a house will fall next year. Atlanta, was not part of the double digit percentage increases over the last several years. The market is a more modest and stable market. While the national market may see price declines on 2007, I do not believe that will be the case in the Cheyenne market for 07."

After several years of double-digit percentage increase, housing prices stopped soaring this year. The 49 economists responding to the WSJ.com forecasting survey expect home prices, measured by the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight index, to rise 2.8% this year and to fall by 0.5% next year. That contrasts with a 13.4% increase in 2005.

"We're nearing the end of the slowdown for most markets," said Ethan S. Harris at Lehman Brothers. Prices still have some ways to fall before they'll stabilize, but there are signs that most drastic parts of the downturn - marked by a sharp pullback in demand and new construction - have run their course. The economists' predictions for home prices next year vary widely, from an increase of 7%, predicted by Kurt Karl and Arun Raha of Swiss Re, to a 10% decline, expected by Maury Harris of UBS.

While 20 economists predicted home prices would rise next year, 24 forecast a decline. Just eight of the economists forecast gains greater than 2.1%, which is their average forecast for consumer-price inflation through mid-2007. The Ofheo index, which is closely watched by economists, has never posted a year-to-year decline

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